CPI-based inflation rose to 4.81%, food inflation to 4.49% in June

The IIP growth rate for the month of May came at 5.2%, according to the government release

  India's retail inflation rose to 4.81 per cent in June from 4.31 per cent in May, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Wednesday showed. The food inflation saw a sharp rise to 4.49 per cent from 2.96 per cent in May. 

The inflation is, however, lower than 7.01 per cent in June 2022. 

The inflation was mainly driven higher by food and beverages where the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 183 in June from 179.1 in May. In the pan, tobacco, and intoxicants category, the index remained stable at 201.4 as compared to 201. 

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, Icra Ltd said, "A less supportive base and the onset of the spike in vegetable prices pushed up the CPI-based inflation to a higher-than-anticipated 4.8 per cent in June 2023, arresting the welcome cooling seen in the previous four months. Icra had forecast the June 2023 CPI inflation at 4.7 per cent."

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"While food and beverages and miscellaneous items drove the sequential uptick in the YoY CPI-based inflation in June 2023, clothing and footwear, housing, and fuel and light recorded a decline."

   "The spike in vegetable prices is set to push the CPI-based inflation to an uncomfortable 5.3-5.5 per cent in July 2023. We expect the vegetable price shock to result in the Q2 FY2024 CPI inflation exceeding the MPC's last forecast of 5.2 per cent. Accordingly, we anticipate that the Committee will retain its hawkish tone in August 2023, keep the repo rate unchanged and signal that a pivot to rate cuts remains distant."

  India's retail inflation rose to 4.81 per cent in June from 4.31 per cent in May, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Wednesday showed. The food inflation saw a sharp rise to 4.49 per cent from 2.96 per cent in May. 

The inflation is, however, lower than 7.01 per cent in June 2022. 

The inflation was mainly driven higher by food and beverages where the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 183 in June from 179.1 in May. In the pan, tobacco, and intoxicants category, the index remained stable at 201.4 as compared to 201. 

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, Icra Ltd said, "A less supportive base and the onset of the spike in vegetable prices pushed up the CPI-based inflation to a higher-than-anticipated 4.8 per cent in June 2023, arresting the welcome cooling seen in the previous four months. Icra had forecast the June 2023 CPI inflation at 4.7 per cent."

"While food and beverages and miscellaneous items drove the sequential uptick in the YoY CPI-based inflation in June 2023, clothing and footwear, housing, and fuel and light recorded a decline."

   "The spike in vegetable prices is set to push the CPI-based inflation to an uncomfortable 5.3-5.5 per cent in July 2023. We expect the vegetable price shock to result in the Q2 FY2024 CPI inflation exceeding the MPC's last forecast of 5.2 per cent. Accordingly, we anticipate that the Committee will retain its hawkish tone in August 2023, keep the repo rate unchanged and signal that a pivot to rate cuts remains distant."  India's retail inflation rose to 4.81 per cent in June from 4.31 per cent in May, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Wednesday showed. The food inflation saw a sharp rise to 4.49 per cent from 2.96 per cent in May. 

The inflation is, however, lower than 7.01 per cent in June 2022. 

The inflation was mainly driven higher by food and beverages where the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 183 in June from 179.1 in May. In the pan, tobacco, and intoxicants category, the index remained stable at 201.4 as compared to 201. 

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, Icra Ltd said, "A less supportive base and the onset of the spike in vegetable prices pushed up the CPI-based inflation to a higher-than-anticipated 4.8 per cent in June 2023, arresting the welcome cooling seen in the previous four months. Icra had forecast the June 2023 CPI inflation at 4.7 per cent."

"While food and beverages and miscellaneous items drove the sequential uptick in the YoY CPI-based inflation in June 2023, clothing and footwear, housing, and fuel and light recorded a decline."

   "The spike in vegetable prices is set to push the CPI-based inflation to an uncomfortable 5.3-5.5 per cent in July 2023. We expect the vegetable price shock to result in the Q2 FY2024 CPI inflation exceeding the MPC's last forecast of 5.2 per cent. Accordingly, we anticipate that the Committee will retain its hawkish tone in August 2023, keep the repo rate unchanged and signal that a pivot to rate cuts remains distant."