Market rebound: Short-covering, or is the worst behind us now?

The weekly F&O data also highlights significant build-up in open interest at the 17,700 Put, suggesting likely support at this level.

The NSE Nifty 50 index has rallied over 3 per cent from its recent low of 17,255 registered on February 28, 2023. The pullback has been fairly sharp in the last two trading sessions, as global cues also turned favourable.

Technically, the Nifty 50 has now bounced back for the second time in less than six months after breaking the 200-DMA for a brief period. First at the end September 2022, and then the recent instance.

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"The trend reversal in Nifty led by banking and metals has more legs. When the market gets oversold, as happened in recent weeks, the bounce back triggered by short-covering can be sharp. This week may throw up some important triggers relating to US non-farm payroll data and takeaways from the Fed chief Powell’s views on the US economic outlook. Since the trends from the mother market US are crucial for global equity markets, investors have to watch out for these developments," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Post the breakdown in September 2022, the Nifty 50 staged a dramatic recovery; once it cleared the near-term hurdles, and went on to hit a fresh all-time high at 18,888 on December 1, 2022 - gaining as much as 12.8 per cent in little more than two months.

Once again, the Nifty is placed at a similar set-up on the charts, i.e. the NSE benchmark has rebounded after breaking the 200-DMA (Daily Moving Average) which now stands at 17,414 level, and is now seen testing the near-term hurdles in the form of 20-DMA and 50-DMA at 17,700 and 17,800, respectively.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the Slow Stochastic is positive and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) and DI (Directional Index)| are on the verge of turning favourable.

On the weekly scale, the Nifty has bounced back from its trend line support around the 17,300-level, which also coincided with the 50-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) at 17,358 and the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands at 17,368. The index was able to sustain above all these levels on a closing basis, which can be seen as a positive sign.

Going ahead, the short-term moving average at 17,700 holds the key for the Nifty 50. As long as the index manages to hold this level, the bears are likely to feel uncomfortable. On the upside, the Nifty can test the trend line resistance on the daily chart at 17,885, above which a rally to 18,000-mark seems possible.

However, in case the 17,700-level fails to hold, the Nifty 50 can dip back towards the 200-DMA and re-test 17,400-odd levels.

F&O Data

According to the Nifty weekly options dated March 09, the 17,700 Put has seen strong build-up of open interest (OI), indicating a possibility of Put writing. Similarly, the 17,750 and 17,800 Puts have also seen substantial build-up in OI. Thus, hinting that traders expect the 17,700-level to hold in the near term.

On the Call side, the highest OI is seen at 17,800 followed by 18,000-mark. This indicates that the index is likely to counter resistance above 17,850-level.